Who Should We Believe about Average Longevity & Other Claims?

Who should we believe about how long we can REALLY live?

Controversy and catchy headlines help sell magazines and advertising, and that makes writing about outrageous claims profitable. The more outlandish, the better. The news media loves it, and so do the readers, whether it’s political controversy or in average longevity and how long we might eventually live.

The LA Times, in When, and why we must die, is just one of the many news outlets to pick up a story about two scientists who recently published study results concluding that humans can’t live beyond age 122. They’re entitled to their opinion, but I don’t buy it.

Other researchers say they’re on track to cure disease and extend life almost indefinitely by blending medicine and technology (INFO + BIO + NANO + NEURO). The news media picked up those stories too.

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, for example, just pledged to give 99% of their Facebook shares to charity and invest $3 billion to cure all diseases by the end of the century. And futurist Ray Kurzweil, who has made incredibly accurate predictions, wrote an important book, The Sigularity is Near, and was hired by Google to lead a similar longevity project there.

So who do YOU believe?

Think about what motives anyone might have for making such controversial claims, or investments, or writing about them. If a developer or investor puts real money where their mouth is, does it make them visionary or just foolish zealots? What might they know that the two lone researchers don’t?

Maybe they’ve seen how “average life expectancy” has already doubled since 1800. Or maybe they’re just confusing average life expectancy with maximum longevity and the fact that many ancient humans also lived long healthy lives if they survived childbirth and natural enemies. Or it might be that they see more hope in science and technology than those who say we can’t live beyond 122.

As a retired IBM technologist, amateur futurist, consumer advocate, and founder of Modern Health Talk, I follow longevity and future of healthcare discussions from a slightly different perspective, with interest in the promise of tech innovation, as well as the challenges of adopting it. And I’ve written extensively about the long-term effects that the exponentially accelerating pace of tech innovation can have on healthcare, including the market drivers and inhibitors of disruptive change.

Moore’s Law and The Future Of Healthcare, for example, is a bullish article about the exciting possibilities, while The Elusive Smart Home is critical of an over-hyped market that has been unable to reach its potential in over 50 years.

My 45+ years of technical and market strategy experience have given me a perspective that causes me to question outlandish claims, but with an open mind, because I’ve seen some truly amazing feats of engineering that were once deemed impossible. So I’m quick to distrust claims with absolutes like NEVER and ALWAYS, and don’t buy into the claim that humans can’t live beyond age 122, but I’m also skeptical of living forever.

What Average Longevity is Possible versus what are we Experiencing?

According to the Harvard School of Public Health, average longevity in the U.S. has been declining for the last several years while those in other rich nations are living longer. Why the difference? One theory is that we emphasize rescue care and acute care at the expense of investing in and promoting disease prevention.

Another theory is that affluent white families in America have access to the best care while many others go without. All of the other nations, each with far better average longevity, invest in some form of universal healthcare, with public officials negotiating prices on behalf of health consumers.

My Top-10 Related Quotes and Favorite False Predictions

When running CaziTech Consulting several years ago, I accumulated a collection of favorite quotes & false predictions, made by people who should have been in a position to most accurately predict the future.

Quotes

1. “Good enough never is.”
2. “Failing to plan is planning to fail.”
3. “Lead follow or get out of the way.”
4. “You can’t steal 2nd with your foot firmly on first.”
5. “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.”
6. “If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem.”
7. “If you think you can, or think you can’t – you are probably right.”
8. “A man saying something is impossible shouldn’t interrupt the man doing it.”
9. “If you really want to do something, you’ll find a way. If you don’t, you’ll find an excuse.”
10. “Do not follow where the path may lead – Go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.”

False Predictions

1. “This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” — Western Union internal memo (1876)
2. “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” — Charles H. Duell, commissioner of the US Patent Office, recommending that his office should be abolished (1899)
3. “The phonograph has no commercial value at all.” — Thomas Edison
4. “Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” — Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University (1929)
5. “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” — Albert Einstein (1932)
6. “A rocket will never be able to leave the earth’s atmosphere.” — New York Times (1936)
7. “I think there is a world market for about five computers.” — Thomas J. Watson Jr., chairman of IBM (1943)
8. “The world potential market for copying machines is 5000 at most.” — IBM to the founders of Xerox as it turned down their proposal (1959)
9. “There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States.” — Craven, FCC Commissioner (1961)
10. “The concept is interesting and well-informed, but in order to earn better than a ‘C’ the idea must be feasible.” — Yale professor’s comments on a term paper submitted by Fred Smith for an overnight delivery system. Two years later, Smith founded Federal Express.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Wayne Caswell is a retired IBM technologist, futurist, market strategist, consumer advocate, sleep economist, and founding editor of Modern Health Talk. With international leadership experience developing wireless networks, sensors, and smart home technologies, he’s been an advocate for Big Broadband and fiber-to-the-home while also enjoying success lobbying for consumers. Wayne leans left to support progressive policies but considers himself politically independent. (contact & BIO)