U.S. Healthcare Spending Update & Outlook
According to a detailed healthcare spending update from Health Affairs, we in the U.S. spent $5.25 trillion last year (2024) on health care costs. That’s 18% of GDP and over $15,600 per capita, or $60K for a household of four. And, those costs keep rising faster than incomes.
I COMMENTED:
It’s important to note that the healthcare spending update projections were done without considering the Trump administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), which was signed 10 days after the Health Affairs report was published. Notably, the report acknowledges the potential impact of new legislation, which can accelerate (or slow) overall spending.
“To the extent that new legislation is enacted that affects coverage patterns or payment rates, or to the extent that the assumptions used in this analysis differ from the ultimate outcomes, such events may result in deviations between health spending projections and actual experience.”
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the healthcare provisions of Trump’s OBBB would result in over $1 trillion in cuts to healthcare programs and could lead to over 12 million people losing their health insurance. Analysis by the League of Women Voters speaks of much broader impacts and how they effect families.
- How the OBBB Impacts Health Coverage: Medicaid and Medicare
- How the OBBB Impacts Nutrition: SNAP
- How the OBBB Impacts Reproductive Health Care: Planned Parenthood and Family Planning
- How the OBBB Impacts Immigration and Border Enforcement
- How the OBBB Impacts Education
- How the OBBB Impacts Tax Cuts
- How Congress Passed This Law
Because of the OBBB, I fear national health expenditures will increase even faster than this healthcare spending update. That spending trend is why I keep calling for a complete Reengineering of U.S. Healthcare. The objective would be to at least match the spending and health outcomes of other rich nations who pay half of what we do on average. Since they’re able to do that while covering everyone, and still have generally better outcomes, this reengineering should be able to save our nation over $2 trillion per year. That’s $5,900 per capita, or $23K for a household of four.
Different Scenarios
As a futurist, I consider different scenarios, as well as drivers and inhibitors. I’m guardedly optimistic about the future of healthcare, because the opportunity and public awareness is so great. On the other hand, I worry about the politics, and that’s why my writing often gets political.
Related Articles
- Why American Health Care is So Expensive (updated May 2024)
- Trump Oligarchy and Healthcare (February 2025)
- Will Big Money in Politics under Trump Help or Harm Health Care? (January 2025)
- Republican Sabotage of Our Health Care System (September 2024)
- ACA Anniversary and History (May 2024)
- American Health Care Act, a Summary & UPDATE (May 2024)
- Why American Capitalism (and Healthcare) Is So Rotten (01/29/2024)
- People Like Obamacare – The ACA is hard to Repeal. Here’s why. (August 2023)
- American Corruption and the U.S. Supreme Court (May 2023)
- Does America Have Exceptional Healthcare? (February 2021)
- The trillion-dollar election is closer than you think (January 2019)
- Bitter Pill: Why High Medical Bills Are Killing Us (February 2013)
About the Author
Wayne Caswell is the Founding Editor of Modern Health Talk, an altruistic website and blog with hundreds of published articles on healthcare policy, technologies, and solutions for independent living. It started in March 2011 as a nonprofit effort to share the unique perspectives of a retired IBM technologist, market strategist, digital home consultant, futurist, and consumer advocate.
